Nutritional Outlook’s Editorial Advisory Board Insights

For me, the buzzword for 2023 is uncertainty. The world is becoming increasingly unpredictable, presenting a myriad of challenges for the nutraceutical and natural product industries. From global geopolitical tensions to domestic political fluctuations, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and an uncertain economy, the industry faces numerous hurdles. These challenges are compounded by the persistence of evolving viruses and the reevaluation of work-life balance by employees. However, this situation is not unique to our sector; the dietary supplement and natural product industries benefit from strong consumer recognition of the importance of health. The hope is that supplements will continue to be perceived as essential rather than optional purchases.

Scott Dicker: There are several significant challenges facing the market that extend beyond the supplement sector specifically. Although I remain hopeful that the worst phase has passed, the ongoing economic slowdown and high inflation will compel consumers to reconsider their discretionary spending, which often includes supplements. Additionally, companies must contend with the growing emphasis on private-label brands from retailers, which are emerging across all categories and aligning more closely with shifting consumer values, posing a long-term challenge to established brands.

Joseph Dowling: Many challenges that emerged last year are likely to persist into the new year. The supply chain remains fragmented due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, further complicated by inflation and the looming threat of recession. As most brands slowed down product innovation during the pandemic, 2023 will be a crucial period for catching up on previously missed opportunities.

John R. Endres: Achieving regulatory status from the FDA for CBD products as dietary supplements will require additional toxicological studies focused on areas of concern for the agency, such as reproductive health and pregnancy.

David Foreman: The most significant challenges in 2023 are likely to be a continuation of issues encountered in 2022. Supply chain disruptions, staffing shortages, and economic uncertainty will play a substantial role in shaping the natural product market this year. However, companies that demonstrate flexibility and creativity are likely to emerge as leaders.

Douglas “Duffy” MacKay: The global supply chain continues to face unpredictable disruptions stemming from geopolitical events, economic shifts, climate change, and unprecedented consumer demand. Supplement executives outside of quality control often underestimate the complexities associated with sourcing ingredients, which are frequently integral to multi-ingredient products. Sourcing an alternative supplier is not as straightforward as it seems; a thorough regulatory process is necessary to qualify a new supplier and ensure that their ingredients meet the required specifications. These processes can be time-consuming and costly, leading to significant operational challenges if not managed effectively.

George Paraskevakos: In the post-pandemic landscape, data from IPA members indicate that consumers are increasingly focused on wellness and are actively seeking products that can support their health. Probiotics, in particular, are at the forefront of this trend. For the probiotic and natural health products sectors, educating consumers about product benefits is paramount. Clear communication of benefits and mechanisms, grounded in scientifically validated research, will be key to gaining consumer trust. Labels should adhere to the IPA Probiotic Labeling Guidelines, ensuring that bacterial counts include expiry dating and well-defined storage conditions. Claims should be substantiated with robust scientific evidence linked to specific strain organisms.

Irfan Qureshi: Following two tumultuous years marked by the pandemic, compounded by rising inflation and a potential recession, 2023 presents numerous challenges for many companies within the supplement industry. Although the industry has traditionally been considered “recession-proof,” a significant proportion of older supplement users on fixed incomes may gradually reduce their spending. Should the economy worsen or fail to recover in 2023, other demographics may also feel financial strain, leading to serious repercussions for the industry.

Additionally, ongoing threats from COVID-19 and other viral outbreaks continue to impact the supply chain for raw materials and ingredients. With China easing its “Zero COVID” policy, the potential for increased cases and emerging variants poses significant risks for global economies. Given that a substantial share of ingredients and components are sourced from China, this situation presents a considerable challenge for natural product companies. Now is the time to refine strategies to proactively address supply chain challenges rather than waiting for crises to unfold.

Harry B. Rice: GOED is vigilant in monitoring any factors that could hinder our members’ business operations. Recently, we have been tracking a couple of significant issues. The first arose in Q2 of 2022 when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Seafood Inspection Program (SIP) announced plans to suspend export certification for encapsulated fish oil intended for human consumption—not due to safety concerns, but due to maintaining the integrity of the seafood certification program. If countries lose confidence in the U.S. certification process, it could adversely affect sales of seafood products, which extend beyond the dietary supplement industry.

Fortunately, export certifications were not suspended, but the approval process for obtaining export certificates was modified, resulting in some initial challenges. Many of these issues have since been resolved, while others are progressing towards resolution. A positive development is that regional offices are now issuing export certificates for fish oil-based composite products, which include primarily fish oil along with plant-based ingredients like olive oil. Previously, many companies faced obstacles in obtaining these certificates.

During our last communication with Steven Wilson, division chief of SIP, he expressed hopes for further communication with stakeholders by the end of the calendar year 2022. Hopefully, this communication will be available by the time you read this.

The second issue we continue to monitor is a regulation from the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and NOAA that implements provisions of the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). This regulation requires any global fishery exporting products, including fish oil, to the U.S., to comply with regulations aimed at minimizing harm to marine mammals. GOED had anticipated that as of January 1, 2023, only fishery products with a positive comparability finding would be permitted for import into the U.S. However, in October, a one-year extension was announced in the Federal Register. Due to the lack of transparency in this process, it remains unclear whether countries have submitted the required documentation. Since learning about this issue, we have maintained close communication with NOAA to address our members’ concerns. Last February, a NOAA representative participated in the GOED Exchange, providing an excellent opportunity for further clarification on the regulation and addressing any outstanding inquiries.

Kantha Shelke: The issues of purity and safety will continue to challenge the dietary supplement and natural products sector due to the presence of unscrupulous actors in the field. There is a significant opportunity for trade associations and educators to inform consumers about the value and safe history of supplement use, including botanical products.

John E. Villafranco: A major challenge for dietary supplement and natural product companies